5. 總結(jié)

本文嘗試了整合技術(shù)、國際貿(mào)易和全球價值鏈文獻，并基于當下全球化、生產(chǎn)活動碎片化和無形資產(chǎn)貿(mào)易增長的趨勢發(fā)展出一套整合了產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易和無形資產(chǎn)貿(mào)易的國際貿(mào)易分析框架。通過深入討論五種無形資產(chǎn)貿(mào)易的模式，本文發(fā)展出一套基于全球價值鏈的國際貿(mào)易統(tǒng)計框架。把這個框架應(yīng)用于美國貿(mào)易收支計算，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)考慮無形資產(chǎn)貿(mào)易后， 2016年美國的貿(mào)易凈收支（包括產(chǎn)品、知識產(chǎn)權(quán)、保險和金融服務(wù)、計算機通訊和其他服務(wù)，以2%收益率和總OFDI和無形資產(chǎn)密集行業(yè)FDI歷史存量計算的無形資產(chǎn)凈收益，以及蘋果公司的非美國部分收入）為3963.8億美元逆差，比 7499.3億美元僅以產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易計算的逆差減少了近一半；2015年美國貿(mào)易凈收支為3971.5億美元逆差，而不是7625.7億美元。如果我們進一步加入除蘋果公司外的包含在外包中的無形資產(chǎn)貿(mào)易，美國的貿(mào)易逆差應(yīng)當更小。因此，本文認為國際貿(mào)易不平衡與相應(yīng)的政策措施應(yīng)當基于完整的包括21世紀多種貿(mào)易活動在內(nèi)的統(tǒng)計框架來討論。

本文的貿(mào)易統(tǒng)計框架提供了一種幫助我們理解21世紀更廣的貿(mào)易圖景的方法。產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易，甚至產(chǎn)品加服務(wù)貿(mào)易，不再是描述貿(mào)易關(guān)系的好的指標。無形資產(chǎn)貿(mào)易的各種模式和渠道需要被納入到這個大的貿(mào)易圖景中來。一種可能的解決方法是整合數(shù)字技術(shù)和可靠的公司自申報系統(tǒng)。比如，我們可以用物聯(lián)網(wǎng)技術(shù)鏈接各種投入和產(chǎn)出，然后用大數(shù)據(jù)技術(shù)對比不同來源數(shù)據(jù)的準確性和可靠性，以及填補中間的數(shù)據(jù)空白。而國際合作是建立標準和執(zhí)行對于新框架的使用和數(shù)據(jù)收集的可行性和可靠性的重要保障。

本文的研究具有重要的政策意義。第一，本文的研究為如何更好的測度全球化做出了貢獻。全球化不應(yīng)當僅僅根據(jù)產(chǎn)品、投資和服務(wù)的互動和一體化來測度，還應(yīng)該包含追蹤和測度起來更加復(fù)雜的無形資產(chǎn)的流動。

第二，本文為全球化的影響的爭論和更包容的全球化政策做出了貢獻。近年，全球化被認為是導(dǎo)致發(fā)達國家不平等問題的罪魁禍首。反全球化浪潮出現(xiàn)在一些主流的工業(yè)化國家。產(chǎn)品的國際貿(mào)易成為了攻擊對象。貿(mào)易和投資保護主義在不斷抬頭。本文的研究表明全球經(jīng)濟失衡并不像商品貿(mào)易所表現(xiàn)出來的那么嚴重。實際上，工業(yè)化國家有巨大的無形資產(chǎn)順差。但是問題是，無形資產(chǎn)貿(mào)易帶來的巨大收益集中在少數(shù)的所有者和一小部分創(chuàng)造這些無形資產(chǎn)的研究技術(shù)人員手里。所以，對于工業(yè)化國家來說，無形資產(chǎn)貿(mào)易獲得巨大利益的團體與社會其他人群之間的是減少不平等的重要措施。并且應(yīng)當禁止跨境避稅行為。

最后，本文的研究對貿(mào)易不平衡做出了貢獻。我們應(yīng)該從更加整體的角度，從全球價值鏈的視角來思考國際貿(mào)易的問題。解決工業(yè)化國家（如美國）和發(fā)展中國家（如中國）之間的貿(mào)易不平衡問題的政策工具應(yīng)當是基于真實的完整的貿(mào)易活動。根據(jù)本文的分析，中美真實的貿(mào)易逆差比大眾認知的3570億美元低很多。因此，減少逆差的談判基礎(chǔ)應(yīng)當考慮到這個問題。同時，無形資產(chǎn)出口應(yīng)當被當做一種政策工具納入兩國政府的考量，而不僅僅是高技術(shù)產(chǎn)品的出口。

未來的研究應(yīng)當進一步發(fā)展這個基于全球價值鏈網(wǎng)絡(luò)的貿(mào)易模型，建立必要的數(shù)據(jù)收集系統(tǒng)、標準和國際數(shù)據(jù)庫，從主要的全球價值鏈到所有全球價值鏈，再到所有類型的全球價值鏈和不基于全球價值鏈的貿(mào)易，分析國家在全球價值鏈上的位置如何影響他們獲取和分享增加值的能力，分享最近的工業(yè)革命如何快速的改變?nèi)騼r值鏈的形態(tài)和國家在其上的位置，以及分析這次工業(yè)革命如何影響國家間的價值分配、收入分配、發(fā)展中國家的升級，還有分析哪些政策制度對于無形資產(chǎn)和產(chǎn)品整體貿(mào)易框架的健康運行是必要的，最后還有分析IPR保護的角色和確?？煽康?、有益的數(shù)據(jù)產(chǎn)生和分享所需的監(jiān)管。

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附錄

圖 1A. 中美保險金融服務(wù)和ICT服務(wù)

（文章來源：牛津大學技術(shù)與管理發(fā)展研究中心）